Saturday, November 22, 2025 – Belém, Brazil

Three main asks:

• Establish a credible global pathway to phase out fossil fuels and protect critical forests.
• Strengthen international cooperation through coalitions of the willing that go beyond weak COP consensus.
• Ensure strong domestic action in the EU and Norway, including robust carbon pricing and industrial decarbonisation.

Quotes:

«Leaving Belém without any substantive follow-up on how to plug the ambition gap between science
and existing commitments, and without a plan to halt deforestation nor to transition away from fossil
fuels represents a deeply disappointing outcome which raises serious doubts about our collective
ability to rise up to the climate challenge. Reaching a consensus is important and means we are
fanning the ashes of the Paris Agreement, but staying the course on domestic action will be absolutely
vital.»

Context:

COP30 has concluded in Belém, the doorway to the Amazon, in a deeply complicated geopolitical context. It had aimed to be a COP of Truth, which would tackle the so-called ‘Ambition Gap’ between what science tells us is necessary and what countries have currently committed to deliver. Expectations started low yet hope for an ambitious outcome emerged unexpectedly with late discussions around a roadmap to tackle fossil fuels and deforestation.

Yet it failed to deliver on recognising this ambition gap, in highlighting the valuable work of the IPCC, and, notably, failed to deliver on what could have been its defining legacy, a clear roadmap towards transitioning away from fossil fuels and a credible plan to halt deforestation.

The EU’s internal struggles, the absence of the US, and China’s passive climate diplomacy, have emboldened Saudi Arabia and other petrostates to hold the world hostage. While the EU made strong statements in defence of mitigation, it dragged its feet on items important to developing countries, such as on climate finance and adaptation. However, it was naïve in allowing the Arab Group to yet again control the pace of progress.

Bellona welcomes the developments which have occurred on the sidelines of the negotiations, notably on the Action Agenda, which has shown that where coalitions have been willing to work together, progress can be made in improving our ability to address the climate crisis, by building on the ambition floor that COP provides.

Domestically, the EU and Norway will need to stay the course in pursuing an ambitious climate agenda which lives up to the science while retaining and decarbonising its industrial base. With this in mind, the importance of robust carbon pricing applied both domestically via the EU ETS and internationally via the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism must be emphasised.