With the agreement of the EU institutions on amendments to the European Climate Law, attention now shifts towards the development of the EU’s post-2030 climate policy framework to deliver 90% of net emissions reductions by 2040. As was the case with the Fit for 55 package following the adoption of the 2030 climate target, the challenge ahead lies in translating the 2040 climate target into a coherent, science-aligned policy architecture able of delivering it in practice and in time for climate neutrality by 2050. 

This task is not a simple extension of the existing framework. The revised Climate Law introduces significant new elements that affect how the post-2030 framework will be designed. In particular, the inclusion of international carbon credits means that progress towards the 2040 target will no longer rely solely on emission reductions within the EU. At the same time, the role of land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) is likely to be reshaped. There is currently no explicit or capped contribution towards the 2040 target, a possible downward revision of the 90% target if LULUCF targets are not met, and a possibility that in the case of overperformance, LULUCF removals could compensate for a lack of action in other sectors. Nevertheless, the text explicitly acknowledges the need for the contribution of removals to be ‘realistic’. 

These changes must be understood in the context of the EU’s broader climate trajectory. The Union has committed to achieving climate neutrality by 2050, aiming to achieve net negative emissions thereafter. Importantly, the Climate Law legally defines climate neutrality as a domestic objective: greenhouse gas emissions and removals must be balanced within the Union. While flexibility mechanisms may be used during the transition, the end point remains an EU economy in which emissions are largely eliminated and, over time, removals exceed any remaining emissions. 

The EU post-2030 climate framework should be firmly grounded in science, while providing clarity on the respective roles of emissions reductions, land sinks and permanent carbon removals and international credits through dedicated, separate contributions and policies. The EU must facilitate the development of carbon removals without diluting the ambition and urgency of cutting emissions at source. Above all, the framework must prioritise deep emissions reductions within the EU. Domestic mitigation is what drives investment in clean infrastructure, industrial transformation and innovation, and is essential for delivering a credible pathway to climate neutrality.