At COP28 last year, world leaders finally called for the beginning of the end of fossil fuels. But where do we stand now?  

Bellona has a longstanding presence at the annual Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP), consistently advocating for ambitious climate action and urging countries to accelerate mitigation efforts. This year, a Bellona delegation attended both weeks in Baku, despite a notable decline in civil society representation. Bellona engaged in ministerial meetings,  negotiations, and events, including including co-organising the UNFCCC side event “Is there climate finance for carbon capture and storage, especially in emerging economies?”, speaking at the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative’s event  “Creating Space for Nature: Visions of Arctic Futures Aligned with the 1.5°C Emission Reduction Goal”, and moderating Climate Bonds Initiative’s session on “The need for innovative financial instruments, policies, and technologies for the hard-to-abate sectors’ transition.”  

While encouraged by progress on carbon markets, Bellona remains deeply concerned about the continued delays in committing to the end of fossil fuels.  

Climate mitigation: off the mark for 1.5°C  

 At COP28, countries globally agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050”. However, these commitments were deferred to the next COP in Brazil. Disappointingly, the COP29 conclusions failed to re-affirm that fossil fuels are the root cause of the climate problem. 

Countries also failed to commit to updating their climate targets and plans in line with keeping 1.5 degrees within reach. Meanwhile, the Global Carbon Project has once again shown that the remaining carbon budget needed to stay within the 1.5°C target will likely be exhausted in the coming years.   

Article 6: a welcomed step but loopholes persist 

International cooperation on mitigation can contribute to higher levels of mitigation efforts, especially in developing countries. The completion of the Paris Agreement’s rulebook for trading of CO₂ reductions and removals bilaterally or through a centralised UN market, is therefore welcome development.; finally obtaining consensus on the rulebook is a major step forward. Nevertheless, in the context of carbon markets, the devil is in the details and the jury is still out on what this particular development means for global climate action.  

Climate finance 

The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance was agreed, with parties committing to provide developing nations at least $300 billion annually. Bellona believes developed countries should contribute to funding climate mitigation in developing countries. However, the agreed yet vague $300 billion target will not be enough to cover the full scope of necessary mitigation, adaptation and damages from climate-related catastrophes. Although the new target is lower than the anticipated needs, Bellona recognises this as an important step forward in very challenging negotiations. 

The Road to Brazil 

In the next few months, we will know a lot more about the countries’ new climate targets and plans, as they start to submit their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).  Bellona urges all countries to honour their commitments to the Paris Agreement and take stronger action to secure an actual path toward a liveable future by submitting ambitious and transparent NDCs which are consistent with 1.5C and transparently clarify the relative contributions of emission reductions and carbon removals. 

Read more on Bellona’s previous engagement at COP here.